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Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke twice its all-time lows in February and in November when it closed at just 498, with the average of dry average returns being in the region of $3,500-5,500/day, i.e. at or below OPEX. It is not a matter anymore of how low it will go (as it is already there), but how long it will last, said Intermodal in its latest report.
According to Panos Tsilingiris of Intermodal, the FFAs, which allegedly contribute to price discovery (note: I have my reservations against this thesis) are by no means optimistic. Cape and Panamax BFAs Calendar 2016 and 2017 are at or just in excess/below OPEX. Supras, which have so far somewhat withstood the collapse and outperformed Panamaxes, are poised to suffer as well, also due to the massive Ultramax orderbook.
The broker further noted that, if demand does not ‘restart’ and BFAs are proven to be correct, the ongoing severe dry bulk crisis may even have implications similar to the 1980s one, albeit still not the base case scenario. The market along with regulatory considerations will force pre-2000 built Vessels as well as more modern but poor-maintained or non-commercially viable Vessels to either flirt with scrap or be ostracized to domestic/inferior trading.
The Intermodal further added that, being tempted by the close to 15-year nominal lows in asset values, we studied acquisitions in 10-year old quality Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Bulkers under a 5-year investment horizon. We considered purchases at the prevailing levels and being conservative we assumed heavy OPEX/Drydock costs and residual values reflecting two pessimistic scenarios: (i) scrap or (ii) sell at current depressed values.
The striking discrepancies between historical vs. current and projected market conditions imply significant structural differences. The resulting break-even rate is half or less than the historical averages but still higher than the BFAs projection for the 2016-17 years. The downside risk is getting squeezed while the upside is rising. In my view it is a buy!, the Greece based ship broker concluded.
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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