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Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke twice its all-time lows in February and in November when it closed at just 498, with the average of dry average returns being in the region of $3,500-5,500/day, i.e. at or below OPEX. It is not a matter anymore of how low it will go (as it is already there), but how long it will last, said Intermodal in its latest report.
According to Panos Tsilingiris of Intermodal, the FFAs, which allegedly contribute to price discovery (note: I have my reservations against this thesis) are by no means optimistic. Cape and Panamax BFAs Calendar 2016 and 2017 are at or just in excess/below OPEX. Supras, which have so far somewhat withstood the collapse and outperformed Panamaxes, are poised to suffer as well, also due to the massive Ultramax orderbook.
The broker further noted that, if demand does not ‘restart’ and BFAs are proven to be correct, the ongoing severe dry bulk crisis may even have implications similar to the 1980s one, albeit still not the base case scenario. The market along with regulatory considerations will force pre-2000 built Vessels as well as more modern but poor-maintained or non-commercially viable Vessels to either flirt with scrap or be ostracized to domestic/inferior trading.
The Intermodal further added that, being tempted by the close to 15-year nominal lows in asset values, we studied acquisitions in 10-year old quality Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Bulkers under a 5-year investment horizon. We considered purchases at the prevailing levels and being conservative we assumed heavy OPEX/Drydock costs and residual values reflecting two pessimistic scenarios: (i) scrap or (ii) sell at current depressed values.
The striking discrepancies between historical vs. current and projected market conditions imply significant structural differences. The resulting break-even rate is half or less than the historical averages but still higher than the BFAs projection for the 2016-17 years. The downside risk is getting squeezed while the upside is rising. In my view it is a buy!, the Greece based ship broker concluded.
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Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
TANKERS VERSUS BULKERS - JUST PLAYING CATCH UP? - CLARKSONS
It’s now more than a year since the tanker market took off. In mid-2014 tanker earnings picked up and since then have been in the $30-$40,000 ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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