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Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
PanamaxDry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke twice its all-time lows in February and in November when it closed at just 498, with the average of dry average returns being in the region of $3,500-5,500/day,  i.e. at or below OPEX. It is not a matter anymore of how low it will go (as it is already there), but how long it will last, said Intermodal in its latest report.

According to Panos Tsilingiris of Intermodal, the FFAs, which allegedly contribute to price discovery (note: I have my reservations against this thesis) are by no means optimistic. Cape and Panamax BFAs Calendar 2016 and 2017 are at or just in excess/below OPEX.  Supras, which have so far somewhat withstood the collapse and outperformed Panamaxes, are poised to suffer as well, also due to the massive Ultramax orderbook.

The broker further noted that, if demand does not ‘restart’ and BFAs are proven to be correct, the ongoing severe dry bulk crisis may even have implications similar to the 1980s one, albeit still not the base case scenario. The market along with regulatory considerations will force pre-2000 built Vessels as well as more modern but poor-maintained or non-commercially viable Vessels to either flirt with scrap or be ostracized to domestic/inferior trading.

The Intermodal further added that, being tempted by the close to 15-year nominal lows in asset values, we studied acquisitions in 10-year old quality Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Bulkers under a 5-year investment horizon. We considered purchases at the prevailing levels and being conservative we assumed heavy OPEX/Drydock costs and residual values reflecting two pessimistic scenarios: (i) scrap or (ii) sell at current depressed values.

The striking discrepancies between historical vs. current and projected market conditions imply significant structural differences. The resulting break-even rate is half or less than the historical averages but still higher than the BFAs projection for the 2016-17 years. The downside risk is getting squeezed while the upside is rising. In my view it is a buy!, the Greece based ship broker concluded.


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Recent News

Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of  liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...


Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week. The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...


Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...


Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...


Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...


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