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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Wednesday, 05 August 15
COAL CONSUMPTION POSTED THE STRONGEST GROWTH AMONG THE FOSSIL ENERGY SOURCES IN 2014 - VDKI
Coal 2014: again the world's fastest-growing primary energy source and an indispensable asset for the success of the energy turnaround.
Ac ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
FOB INDONESIA THERMAL COAL SWAPS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
DRY BULKER PRICES START TO FIRM UP AS MARKET SENTIMENT IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Market pessimism in the dry bulk industry, a trend which had established itself over the course of the year, has started to fade away over the past ...
Tuesday, 04 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO FALL DUE TO SLIDING DEMAND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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