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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Friday, 07 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 528.1 MMST; DOWN 8.7% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES SHOOT UP LAST WEEK; GIVING THIS RECENT RALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED LEGS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market noted another positive closing last week, entirely supported by Capesize performance, which managed to balance th ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
HARD COAL AND COKE IMPORTS TO GERMANY REACH NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 56.2M TONES IN 2014
Demand for German and imported hard coal In 2014, in 2014 fell by almost 8%, or 4.8m TCE, to 56.2m TCE.
According to German Coal Importer ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
SEABORNE WORLD TRADE IN STEAM COAL GROWS BY 3% YOY - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Global trade with hard coal, at 1,272m tones in 2014, increased by 35m tonnes or 3% in comparison with the previous year.
According to associa ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germ ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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