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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Tuesday, 11 August 15
GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF CRUDE STEEL REACHED A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 1,661M TONNES IN 2014 - VDKI
COALpot.com: Global production of crude steel reached a new all-time high of 1,661m tonnes in 2014, said German Coal Importer Association, in its l ...
Tuesday, 11 August 15
2016 CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 4Q 2015 CLOSING PRICES; BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 10 (0.20%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Monday, 10 August 15
SOUTH KOREAN UTILITY KOMIPO INVITES BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 560,000 Metric Tons (MT) of 4,600kcal/kg NAR c ...
Sunday, 09 August 15
THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS REMAINED WEAK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be buoyant with cape index pushing the BDI.
The BDI was up 10.49% and closed at 1200 points on 7 ...
Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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