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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Thursday, 15 October 15
Q1' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ADVANCED 2 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gain week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was dow ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET NET EXPANSION WAS 1.3% DURING THIRD QUARTER, BUT ORDERBOOK REDUCED TO 17% OF THE TRADING FLEET
If the dry bulk market is to rebound on a sustainable level, it needs to limit the tonnage expansion, at least until demand picks up again, as Chin ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 2 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.46 per ton (1.08%) month over month to US$ 42.17 per ton. The ...
Monday, 12 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W; SLIGHTLY DOWN M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 3 (0.06 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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