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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Friday, 16 October 15
MAJOR REVISION OF NYPE TIME CHAPTER PARTY - BIMCO
Major revision of NYPE time charter party promises to be both balanced and comprehensive
BIMCO has today jointly issued the first revision of ...
Friday, 16 October 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4'15 DELIVERY FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK; DOWN 5.5 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) ...
Friday, 16 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK; DOWN 11.3 PER CENT Y-Y, DOWN 3.5 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.1 million shor ...
Friday, 16 October 15
INDONESIA REJOINING OPEC DESPITE BEING A NET IMPORTER OF PETROLEUM - EIA
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) notified Indonesia that it plans to accept the country's request to reactivate its ...
Thursday, 15 October 15
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR SEVEN STRAIGHT MONTH IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price this month.
The ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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