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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Tuesday, 20 October 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $1.23 per ton (2.86%) month over month to US$ 41.80 per ton. The ...
Monday, 19 October 15
RUSSIA MAJOR COAL MINER KRU CUTS 4.5 MLN T/YR "UNPROFITABLE" EURO SALES - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU), one of Russia's largest producers of high-quality coal, plans to cut its coal exports in 2016 by about 4 ...
Monday, 19 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $48.68 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 55 (1.12 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 19 October 15
KOMIPO SEEKS 1.28 MILLION T/Y COAL FOR DEC 2015 - Q2 2016
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,280,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Sunday, 18 October 15
THE BDI AND OTHER INDICES CLOSED OFF ON NEGATIVE NOTE THIS FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on negative note this Friday compared to previous Friday's closing.
The BDI closed this Friday (16 Octobe ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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