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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 03 August 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.92 per MT (-4.22%) month over month to US$ 43.58 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 03 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.64 (3.14%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 02 August 15
CAPESIZE RATES PUSH BDI UPWARD
COALspot.com: The freight market was buoyant this week as BDI rose 4.14 pct to 1131 points. The cape index was also increased 16.50 pct 2209 points ...
Saturday, 01 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ITS MOMENTUM, AS OUTLOOK IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although conditions remain more than challenging, especially from an economic point of view (aka China’s stock worries), the dry bulk market ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CAPE'S PAPER MARKET REMAINS FIRM - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment that the Dry Bulk market has been enjoying as of the previous month, was carried through last week as well, bu ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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