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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 03 August 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.92 per MT (-4.22%) month over month to US$ 43.58 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 03 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.64 (3.14%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 02 August 15
CAPESIZE RATES PUSH BDI UPWARD
COALspot.com: The freight market was buoyant this week as BDI rose 4.14 pct to 1131 points. The cape index was also increased 16.50 pct 2209 points ...
Saturday, 01 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ITS MOMENTUM, AS OUTLOOK IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although conditions remain more than challenging, especially from an economic point of view (aka China’s stock worries), the dry bulk market ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CAPE'S PAPER MARKET REMAINS FIRM - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment that the Dry Bulk market has been enjoying as of the previous month, was carried through last week as well, bu ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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