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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
Friday, 07 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 528.1 MMST; DOWN 8.7% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES SHOOT UP LAST WEEK; GIVING THIS RECENT RALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED LEGS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market noted another positive closing last week, entirely supported by Capesize performance, which managed to balance th ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
HARD COAL AND COKE IMPORTS TO GERMANY REACH NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 56.2M TONES IN 2014
Demand for German and imported hard coal In 2014, in 2014 fell by almost 8%, or 4.8m TCE, to 56.2m TCE.
According to German Coal Importer ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
SEABORNE WORLD TRADE IN STEAM COAL GROWS BY 3% YOY - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Global trade with hard coal, at 1,272m tones in 2014, increased by 35m tonnes or 3% in comparison with the previous year.
According to associa ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
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