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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FLAT TREND LINE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was decli ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
DRY BULK: MARKETS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SEVERELY CHALLENGED - CLARKSONS
The dry bulk markets have continued to be severely challenged with freight rates falling during the period to below operating expense. The Baltic D ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
1Q'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FALLS BELOW $54 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
2Q' 16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $43 PER MT W/E 14 AUGUST
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.08 per MT (-2.46%) month over month to US$ 42.82 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 17 August 15
TROUBLED DRY BULK MARKET FACES TURMOIL AS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS REMAIN WEAK - BIMCO
The demand for coal in China continues to diminish. So much in fact that India is expected to succeed China as the world’s largest imp ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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