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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
INDONESIA MINERS' NPLS TO RISE FURTHER, BANK RISKS BUILD - FITCH
The NPLs of Indonesian mine and mine services companies are likely to rise further in the short term, says Fitch Ratings, after reaching multi-year ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
MINER'S EARNINGS DROP ON FALLING COAL PRICES; Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.23 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 24 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HIT FRESH LOW, DIPPING BELOW $42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 2.20 per MT (-5.01%) month over month to US$ 41.70 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 24 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 48.65 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.89 (3.74%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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