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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 16 April 15
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS RISE BY 33 PC TO 240 MT IN FY'15 - PTI
India’s coal imports in the just concluded FY 2015 increased by 33 per cent to about 240 million tonnes.
“Coal import have gone up ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
CAPESIZE: THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND SIDE ARE NOW SUFFERING HEAVILY - FEARNLEYS
Handy
It seems to be some standoff between owners and charterers in both hemispheres this week. Owners are raising their rates while charterers a ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
Q3 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 55.67 PMT
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month.
The Q2 swap has declined US$ 1.90 (3.17%) m ...
Wednesday, 15 April 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.63 MMT OF COAL IN MARCH; UP 4.41% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.227 billi ...
Tuesday, 14 April 15
COAL OUTPUT FALLS AS PRICES CONTINUE TO LAG - JP
Coal output dropped by 21 percent in the first three months of the year as low prices for the commodity forced mining companies to reduce activitie ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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