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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 14 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $44
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.25 (4.77%) ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.28 PMT; DECLINED 7.50% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.67 per MT (-7.50%) month over month and US$ 0.39 week on wee ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q4 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 50.97
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (-8.05%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0 ...
Sunday, 12 April 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady, however the BDI was declined slightly week over week.
BDI dropped 1.36 pct and closed at 580 poin ...
Friday, 10 April 15
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 4.7% W-O-W : EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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