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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 21 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-O-W; DECLINED M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 gained week over week and declined month on month.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 1.75 ( ...
Tuesday, 21 April 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP MOVE UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 increased slightly month over month.
The Q2 swap has increased US$ 0.2 ...
Monday, 20 April 15
BUKIT ASAM TAKES OVER STAKE IN JV FROM RAJAWALI - JP
State-owned coal miner PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) announced Friday that it had taken over almost the entire stake in a joint venture (JV) that it created ...
Monday, 20 April 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.54 per MT (-7.21%) month over month and gained US$ 0.30 week ...
Monday, 20 April 15
Q4' 2015 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 50.28 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.03 (-7.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.05 (-0 ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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