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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 27 April 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL BELOW ONE BILLION SHORT TONS IN 2013 - EIA
COALspot.com: For the first time in two decades, U.S. coal production fell below one billion short tons to 984.8 million short tons in 2013 from 1, ...
Monday, 27 April 15
Q3' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 3.69% LOWER THAN Q2' 2015 PRICE OF $46.36
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.19 per MT (0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.78 week on week. ...
Monday, 27 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLOWLY IMPROVED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.74 (-1.41%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.43 ...
Sunday, 26 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEPT IMPROVING THIS WEEK; CAPES AND PANAMAXES SHOW A SLIGHT PICKUP IN RATES
COALspot.com: The freight market was stable this week as BDI closed at 600 points after improving 0.50 percent week over week.
The cape ...
Friday, 24 April 15
CHINA IRON ORE MINE CLOSURES TO SLOW ON GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings expects fewer Chinese iron ore mine closures in 2015 as the government takes steps to support the industry, which has been struggling ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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