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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE PLAYS EXPECTED TO SHAPE UP MAY DRY BULK SCHEDULE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Market plays in the iron ore commodities’ markets, are expected to carve out the future demand for the shipping industry as well, said Allied ...
Wednesday, 29 April 15
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The figures of China’s slowing down imports of coking coal for the first quarter of the year are coming to confirm what everybody was expecti ...
Wednesday, 29 April 15
SHIPBUILDERS START OFFERING DISCOUNTS FOR DRY BULK NEWBUILDINGS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It took a while, but now it appears that some shipbuilders are beginning to adjust their price lists to the new grim reality of the dry bulk market ...
Tuesday, 28 April 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED M-O-M; INCREASED W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 gained week over week but declined month on month.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 0.15 ( ...
Tuesday, 28 April 15
Q2' 15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.18% HIGHER FROM MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 increased month over month and slightly week over week.
The Q2 swap ha ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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