We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 18 June 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: LOWEST FLEET GROWTH IN 10 YEARS MAY NOT PROVE ENOUGH AS DEMAND IS NOT KEEPING PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The demand side of things in the dry bulk market seems unable to keep pace with even the slightest fleet growth, a sign of the demise that the industry is suffering from. According to BIMCO’s latest short-term outlook, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), started 2015 at 771 points, only to retreat to a historical low of 509 points on the 18th of February. “Since then it has improved but only on a couple of occasions has it been above 600. The market conditions are devastating and volume growth in 2015 on key trades is negative. The lack of coal imports into China is taking centre stage, and lost volumes are difficult to make up elsewhere. The (still) positive iron ore demand is overshadowed in significance as the negative coal market makes headlines”, said the report.
According to BIMCO, “dry bulk is under pressure on the commodity side and since the beginning of 2014 iron ore prices have slid. That development has made some of the mining companies alter their expansion plans of placing more iron ore on the market, when demand is obviously not as strong to uphold the former price level. From USD 140 per ton down to 42 in early April. Since then spot Australian Iron Ore FOB prices (Source: Commodore Research) has improved. By end-May, Australian iron ore (63% iron content) was priced at just above USD 60 per ton. This is very positive as it proves demand is there despite steel production growth being negative in China (-1.7%) as well as rest of the world (-1.9%) during Q1. In 2014, Chinese steel demand contracted for the first time since 1995. As the Chinese economy is now changing, so is its steel demand. The knock-on effect for the dry bulk market will depend on the extent to which imported ore takes market share from domestically mined ore as well as absolute level of steel production. Current forecasts for global iron ore demand growth in 2015 is positive, at 3% (Source: SSY)”, said the report.
Meanwhile, the other significant commodity, coal, is doing really bad in China while improving in India. “Total Chinese coal imports for the first four months in 2015 came in at 68 million tons (Source: Chinese customs). Down by 38% – same period last year. Both thermal and coking coal markets as well as lignite are suffering. The landed cost of coal into China at the end of May is not favouring imports despite very low freight rates. For thermal coal, SSY expects Chinese imports to contract by 30 million tons, while expectations for Indian imports is a plus at 20 million tons. Last year China imported a total of 291 million tons, distributed with 165 million tons of thermal coal, 62 million tons of coking coal and 64 million tons of lignite. These numbers include seaborne as well as land borne imports”, said BIMCO.
In terms of supply, since the turn of the year, the dry bulk fleet as a whole has only grown by 0.5% and since early February, the fleet has not grown at all. This has happened as the demolished volumes have matched the number for newbuildings being delivered. According to BIMCO, “the Capesize fleet is actually smaller today than half a year ago (beginning of November). The development in Panamax and Handysize segment is flat, whereas the Handymax/Supramax segment has grown as we expected it to. In spite of 1 million DWT of Handymax capacity being demolished, 6 million has been delivered, equal to a growth in supply for that sub-segment of 2.9% for the year to date. For the year 2015, BIMCO expects supply growth to be at 3.8%. This is a downward revision of our estimation three months ago, and it rose out of our adjustment of demolition volumes expected for 2015. As the poor freight market bites harder at an extended time, BIMCO anticipates 30 million DWT to leave the fleet during 2015 and 17 million DWT to have been sold for demolition end of May. Owners have dug deep in the first five months of 2015 whilst continued devastating freight market keep demolition volumes high. An improved freight market is expected to cool demolition interests swiftly”.
Additionally, “another positive development is found on the contracting side. 35 new orders have been placed at global shipyards so far this year (1.8 mill. DWT). 7 Panamaxes, 12 Handymaxes, 16 Handysizes and no Capesizes have been added to the order book, which now stands at 1,750 ships with a combined capacity of 142 million DWT. This is to the shocking fact of 1,981 ships which were contracted during 2013-2014″.
In its outlook for the market, BIMCO said that “it is a small consolation that Indian coal imports may go up by 20 million tons, when Chinese imports drop by 30 million tons for the second year running. Despite a very bad sentiment in the market, BIMCO expects volume to increase as we move into Q3. More Brazilian iron ore and grains (wheat and coarse) moving into the market as the soya season abates, should on an overall level, prohibit the market to go into reverse – if volumes contract. The momentous imbalance between supply and demand continues to worsen in spite of a noteworthy 10-year low supply growth rate. 160 million DWT of new orders placed in 2013/14 can only do harm when demolition activity fails to slash any records by a never-seen-before margin. As the demand growth for dry bulk seaborne transportation seems to weaken too, potentially even on a permanent basis as China changes gear, the industry must adapt to become profitable again. Wait-and-see strategies may turn out to take too long. If we are to believe that current utilisation levels are just around 70%, new orders should not just cool down for a while, they must be sensitively counterbalanced with demolition for a number of years, not just a few quarters”.
It concluded its analysis by noting that “for the coming months: June-August, BIMCO expects the market challenges to stick. The demand side is so weak right now, with China reducing coal import by 40% that it dwarfs most of the positive aspects of the market. On the upside we see owners limiting fleet growth by increasing demolition of obsolete tonnage. Whether this work on the supply side will prove to be effective enough to improve the fundamental balance only time will tell”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 13 July 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED ON A POSITIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Despite Greece crisis and turmoil in the stock market across the world , the freight market overall was firm and up in all segments t ...
Sunday, 12 July 15
SHIPYARD NOT LIABLE FOR ENGINE ROOM FIRE CAUSED BY OIL LEAKAGE - BIRCH WINDAHL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A Danish vessel owner requested a Danish shipyard to undertake repairs and maintenance works on its vessel. An agreement ...
Saturday, 11 July 15
MAJOR IRANIAN GAS EXPORTS WILL TAKE AT LEAST FIVE YEARS - FITCH
Iran has the long-term potential to become one of the world's top gas producers, thanks to its 34 trillion cubic meters (tcm) of natural gas re ...
Friday, 10 July 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS POSITIVE MOMENTUM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its positive momentum over the course of the past few days, thanks to Panamax gains. During yesterday’s session ...
Friday, 10 July 15
U.S PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 14.1 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.1 million short ...
|
|
|
Showing 2931 to 2935 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
