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Thursday, 18 June 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: LOWEST FLEET GROWTH IN 10 YEARS MAY NOT PROVE ENOUGH AS DEMAND IS NOT KEEPING PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The demand side of things in the dry bulk market seems unable to keep pace with even the slightest fleet growth, a sign of the demise that the industry is suffering from. According to BIMCO’s latest short-term outlook, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), started 2015 at 771 points, only to retreat to a historical low of 509 points on the 18th of February. “Since then it has improved but only on a couple of occasions has it been above 600. The market conditions are devastating and volume growth in 2015 on key trades is negative. The lack of coal imports into China is taking centre stage, and lost volumes are difficult to make up elsewhere. The (still) positive iron ore demand is overshadowed in significance as the negative coal market makes headlines”, said the report.
According to BIMCO, “dry bulk is under pressure on the commodity side and since the beginning of 2014 iron ore prices have slid. That development has made some of the mining companies alter their expansion plans of placing more iron ore on the market, when demand is obviously not as strong to uphold the former price level. From USD 140 per ton down to 42 in early April. Since then spot Australian Iron Ore FOB prices (Source: Commodore Research) has improved. By end-May, Australian iron ore (63% iron content) was priced at just above USD 60 per ton. This is very positive as it proves demand is there despite steel production growth being negative in China (-1.7%) as well as rest of the world (-1.9%) during Q1. In 2014, Chinese steel demand contracted for the first time since 1995. As the Chinese economy is now changing, so is its steel demand. The knock-on effect for the dry bulk market will depend on the extent to which imported ore takes market share from domestically mined ore as well as absolute level of steel production. Current forecasts for global iron ore demand growth in 2015 is positive, at 3% (Source: SSY)”, said the report.
Meanwhile, the other significant commodity, coal, is doing really bad in China while improving in India. “Total Chinese coal imports for the first four months in 2015 came in at 68 million tons (Source: Chinese customs). Down by 38% – same period last year. Both thermal and coking coal markets as well as lignite are suffering. The landed cost of coal into China at the end of May is not favouring imports despite very low freight rates. For thermal coal, SSY expects Chinese imports to contract by 30 million tons, while expectations for Indian imports is a plus at 20 million tons. Last year China imported a total of 291 million tons, distributed with 165 million tons of thermal coal, 62 million tons of coking coal and 64 million tons of lignite. These numbers include seaborne as well as land borne imports”, said BIMCO.
In terms of supply, since the turn of the year, the dry bulk fleet as a whole has only grown by 0.5% and since early February, the fleet has not grown at all. This has happened as the demolished volumes have matched the number for newbuildings being delivered. According to BIMCO, “the Capesize fleet is actually smaller today than half a year ago (beginning of November). The development in Panamax and Handysize segment is flat, whereas the Handymax/Supramax segment has grown as we expected it to. In spite of 1 million DWT of Handymax capacity being demolished, 6 million has been delivered, equal to a growth in supply for that sub-segment of 2.9% for the year to date. For the year 2015, BIMCO expects supply growth to be at 3.8%. This is a downward revision of our estimation three months ago, and it rose out of our adjustment of demolition volumes expected for 2015. As the poor freight market bites harder at an extended time, BIMCO anticipates 30 million DWT to leave the fleet during 2015 and 17 million DWT to have been sold for demolition end of May. Owners have dug deep in the first five months of 2015 whilst continued devastating freight market keep demolition volumes high. An improved freight market is expected to cool demolition interests swiftly”.
Additionally, “another positive development is found on the contracting side. 35 new orders have been placed at global shipyards so far this year (1.8 mill. DWT). 7 Panamaxes, 12 Handymaxes, 16 Handysizes and no Capesizes have been added to the order book, which now stands at 1,750 ships with a combined capacity of 142 million DWT. This is to the shocking fact of 1,981 ships which were contracted during 2013-2014″.
In its outlook for the market, BIMCO said that “it is a small consolation that Indian coal imports may go up by 20 million tons, when Chinese imports drop by 30 million tons for the second year running. Despite a very bad sentiment in the market, BIMCO expects volume to increase as we move into Q3. More Brazilian iron ore and grains (wheat and coarse) moving into the market as the soya season abates, should on an overall level, prohibit the market to go into reverse – if volumes contract. The momentous imbalance between supply and demand continues to worsen in spite of a noteworthy 10-year low supply growth rate. 160 million DWT of new orders placed in 2013/14 can only do harm when demolition activity fails to slash any records by a never-seen-before margin. As the demand growth for dry bulk seaborne transportation seems to weaken too, potentially even on a permanent basis as China changes gear, the industry must adapt to become profitable again. Wait-and-see strategies may turn out to take too long. If we are to believe that current utilisation levels are just around 70%, new orders should not just cool down for a while, they must be sensitively counterbalanced with demolition for a number of years, not just a few quarters”.
It concluded its analysis by noting that “for the coming months: June-August, BIMCO expects the market challenges to stick. The demand side is so weak right now, with China reducing coal import by 40% that it dwarfs most of the positive aspects of the market. On the upside we see owners limiting fleet growth by increasing demolition of obsolete tonnage. Whether this work on the supply side will prove to be effective enough to improve the fundamental balance only time will tell”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 17 July 15
DO CANCELLATION RIGHTS UNDER VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY SURVIVE RE-NOMINATION OF LOAD PORT? - INCE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do cancellation rights under voyage charterparty survive re-nomination of load port?
St Shipping & Transport Inc ...
Thursday, 16 July 15
INDONESIA'S HBA HITS ALL-TIME LOW OF $59.16 PER METRIC TON IN JULY 2015
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.16 pe ...
Thursday, 16 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE W-O-W, M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The last few weeks have been rather strenuous for Greece and China, each for their own reasons, affecting most markets around the world. In Greece ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
IRAN OIL RECOVERY TO TAKE YEARS, BUT COULD START IN 2016 - FITCH
Iranian crude oil production is likely to increase in 2016 but will take a number of years to reach its previous peak, Fitch Ratings says.
The ...
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Showing 2921 to 2925 news of total 6871 |
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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