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Thursday, 18 June 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: LOWEST FLEET GROWTH IN 10 YEARS MAY NOT PROVE ENOUGH AS DEMAND IS NOT KEEPING PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The demand side of things in the dry bulk market seems unable to keep pace with even the slightest fleet growth, a sign of the demise that the industry is suffering from. According to BIMCO’s latest short-term outlook, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), started 2015 at 771 points, only to retreat to a historical low of 509 points on the 18th of February. “Since then it has improved but only on a couple of occasions has it been above 600. The market conditions are devastating and volume growth in 2015 on key trades is negative. The lack of coal imports into China is taking centre stage, and lost volumes are difficult to make up elsewhere. The (still) positive iron ore demand is overshadowed in significance as the negative coal market makes headlines”, said the report.
According to BIMCO, “dry bulk is under pressure on the commodity side and since the beginning of 2014 iron ore prices have slid. That development has made some of the mining companies alter their expansion plans of placing more iron ore on the market, when demand is obviously not as strong to uphold the former price level. From USD 140 per ton down to 42 in early April. Since then spot Australian Iron Ore FOB prices (Source: Commodore Research) has improved. By end-May, Australian iron ore (63% iron content) was priced at just above USD 60 per ton. This is very positive as it proves demand is there despite steel production growth being negative in China (-1.7%) as well as rest of the world (-1.9%) during Q1. In 2014, Chinese steel demand contracted for the first time since 1995. As the Chinese economy is now changing, so is its steel demand. The knock-on effect for the dry bulk market will depend on the extent to which imported ore takes market share from domestically mined ore as well as absolute level of steel production. Current forecasts for global iron ore demand growth in 2015 is positive, at 3% (Source: SSY)”, said the report.
Meanwhile, the other significant commodity, coal, is doing really bad in China while improving in India. “Total Chinese coal imports for the first four months in 2015 came in at 68 million tons (Source: Chinese customs). Down by 38% – same period last year. Both thermal and coking coal markets as well as lignite are suffering. The landed cost of coal into China at the end of May is not favouring imports despite very low freight rates. For thermal coal, SSY expects Chinese imports to contract by 30 million tons, while expectations for Indian imports is a plus at 20 million tons. Last year China imported a total of 291 million tons, distributed with 165 million tons of thermal coal, 62 million tons of coking coal and 64 million tons of lignite. These numbers include seaborne as well as land borne imports”, said BIMCO.
In terms of supply, since the turn of the year, the dry bulk fleet as a whole has only grown by 0.5% and since early February, the fleet has not grown at all. This has happened as the demolished volumes have matched the number for newbuildings being delivered. According to BIMCO, “the Capesize fleet is actually smaller today than half a year ago (beginning of November). The development in Panamax and Handysize segment is flat, whereas the Handymax/Supramax segment has grown as we expected it to. In spite of 1 million DWT of Handymax capacity being demolished, 6 million has been delivered, equal to a growth in supply for that sub-segment of 2.9% for the year to date. For the year 2015, BIMCO expects supply growth to be at 3.8%. This is a downward revision of our estimation three months ago, and it rose out of our adjustment of demolition volumes expected for 2015. As the poor freight market bites harder at an extended time, BIMCO anticipates 30 million DWT to leave the fleet during 2015 and 17 million DWT to have been sold for demolition end of May. Owners have dug deep in the first five months of 2015 whilst continued devastating freight market keep demolition volumes high. An improved freight market is expected to cool demolition interests swiftly”.
Additionally, “another positive development is found on the contracting side. 35 new orders have been placed at global shipyards so far this year (1.8 mill. DWT). 7 Panamaxes, 12 Handymaxes, 16 Handysizes and no Capesizes have been added to the order book, which now stands at 1,750 ships with a combined capacity of 142 million DWT. This is to the shocking fact of 1,981 ships which were contracted during 2013-2014″.
In its outlook for the market, BIMCO said that “it is a small consolation that Indian coal imports may go up by 20 million tons, when Chinese imports drop by 30 million tons for the second year running. Despite a very bad sentiment in the market, BIMCO expects volume to increase as we move into Q3. More Brazilian iron ore and grains (wheat and coarse) moving into the market as the soya season abates, should on an overall level, prohibit the market to go into reverse – if volumes contract. The momentous imbalance between supply and demand continues to worsen in spite of a noteworthy 10-year low supply growth rate. 160 million DWT of new orders placed in 2013/14 can only do harm when demolition activity fails to slash any records by a never-seen-before margin. As the demand growth for dry bulk seaborne transportation seems to weaken too, potentially even on a permanent basis as China changes gear, the industry must adapt to become profitable again. Wait-and-see strategies may turn out to take too long. If we are to believe that current utilisation levels are just around 70%, new orders should not just cool down for a while, they must be sensitively counterbalanced with demolition for a number of years, not just a few quarters”.
It concluded its analysis by noting that “for the coming months: June-August, BIMCO expects the market challenges to stick. The demand side is so weak right now, with China reducing coal import by 40% that it dwarfs most of the positive aspects of the market. On the upside we see owners limiting fleet growth by increasing demolition of obsolete tonnage. Whether this work on the supply side will prove to be effective enough to improve the fundamental balance only time will tell”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 15 July 15
SAS TO BUILD 108 KM ROAD FOR COAL IN JAMBI, SAYS JAKARTA POST
Jambi Governor Hasan Basri Agus said on Sunday that mining company PT Sinar Anugerah Sukses (SAS) would develop a 108-kilometer road with a width o ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
ANY FUTURE IRAN OIL DEAL WILL BOOST SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS WITH TANKER OWNERS HOPING FROM TEHRAN TO QUICKLY BOOST ITS PRODUCTION
With the Greek “Euro-drama” apparently over, at least for now, Iran’s oil deal still remains elusive, with any potential agreemen ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS MAINTAIN OVERALL NEGATIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.02 per MT (-2.23%) month over month to US$ 44.68 per mt. The swap ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.47 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SOAR 23 PER CENT TO 24.08 MILLION TONNES AT 12 MAJOR INDIAN PORTS
Import of thermal coal jumped 23 per cent to 24.08 million tonnes at 12 major ports in the first quarter of the fiscal, even as the government cont ...
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Showing 2926 to 2930 news of total 6871 |
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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