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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 28 April 15
Q2' 15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.18% HIGHER FROM MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 increased month over month and slightly week over week.
The Q2 swap ha ...
Monday, 27 April 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL BELOW ONE BILLION SHORT TONS IN 2013 - EIA
COALspot.com: For the first time in two decades, U.S. coal production fell below one billion short tons to 984.8 million short tons in 2013 from 1, ...
Monday, 27 April 15
Q3' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 3.69% LOWER THAN Q2' 2015 PRICE OF $46.36
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.19 per MT (0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.78 week on week. ...
Monday, 27 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLOWLY IMPROVED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.74 (-1.41%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.43 ...
Sunday, 26 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEPT IMPROVING THIS WEEK; CAPES AND PANAMAXES SHOW A SLIGHT PICKUP IN RATES
COALspot.com: The freight market was stable this week as BDI closed at 600 points after improving 0.50 percent week over week.
The cape ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
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