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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 May 15
OVERSUPPLY PUTTING INDONESIAN COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 lost week over week and month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ 1 ...
Tuesday, 05 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS MOVE NORTH THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap has increas ...
Monday, 04 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 PRICES SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 1.38 per MT (3.12%) month over month and US$ 0.93 week on week. ...
Monday, 04 May 15
Q1' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGH THAN 2015 DERIVATIVES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.15 (-0.29%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.07 ...
Sunday, 03 May 15
DRY BULK INDICES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to weak for the week starting from 27 April. The BDI was fell around 2.17% closed at 580 points.
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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