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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 April 15
CHINA IRON ORE MINE CLOSURES TO SLOW ON GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings expects fewer Chinese iron ore mine closures in 2015 as the government takes steps to support the industry, which has been struggling ...
Friday, 24 April 15
IS INDIA THE 'NEW CHINA' WHEN IT COMES TO THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been feeling the “heat” of China’s slowdown and together with the industry’s own failings, with ove ...
Friday, 24 April 15
GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION OUTSIDE OF CHINA CONTINUES TO FARE VERY POORLY - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Data released this week showed that global crude steel production totaled approximately 138.05 million tons in March.
Wha ...
Friday, 24 April 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE FALLS 5.7% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.0 million short ...
Wednesday, 22 April 15
PANAMAX : ATLANTIC HOLDING ON TO THE GAINS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK; PACIFIC BUSINESS SLID QUIETLY
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to close off the week on a positive note last Friday, while as opposed to what we have been used to, it w ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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