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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Friday, 24 April 15
CHINA IRON ORE MINE CLOSURES TO SLOW ON GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings expects fewer Chinese iron ore mine closures in 2015 as the government takes steps to support the industry, which has been struggling ...
Friday, 24 April 15
IS INDIA THE 'NEW CHINA' WHEN IT COMES TO THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been feeling the “heat” of China’s slowdown and together with the industry’s own failings, with ove ...
Friday, 24 April 15
GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION OUTSIDE OF CHINA CONTINUES TO FARE VERY POORLY - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Data released this week showed that global crude steel production totaled approximately 138.05 million tons in March.
Wha ...
Friday, 24 April 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE FALLS 5.7% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.0 million short ...
Wednesday, 22 April 15
PANAMAX : ATLANTIC HOLDING ON TO THE GAINS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK; PACIFIC BUSINESS SLID QUIETLY
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to close off the week on a positive note last Friday, while as opposed to what we have been used to, it w ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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