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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE EXPORTS: A DANGEROUS RACE? - CLARKSONS
The surge in iron ore exports in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in iron ore spot prices, which dipped to a ten year low of bel ...
Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE PLAYS EXPECTED TO SHAPE UP MAY DRY BULK SCHEDULE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Market plays in the iron ore commodities’ markets, are expected to carve out the future demand for the shipping industry as well, said Allied ...
Wednesday, 29 April 15
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The figures of China’s slowing down imports of coking coal for the first quarter of the year are coming to confirm what everybody was expecti ...
Wednesday, 29 April 15
SHIPBUILDERS START OFFERING DISCOUNTS FOR DRY BULK NEWBUILDINGS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It took a while, but now it appears that some shipbuilders are beginning to adjust their price lists to the new grim reality of the dry bulk market ...
Tuesday, 28 April 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED M-O-M; INCREASED W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 gained week over week but declined month on month.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 0.15 ( ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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