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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Tuesday, 05 May 15
OVERSUPPLY PUTTING INDONESIAN COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 lost week over week and month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ 1 ...
Tuesday, 05 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS MOVE NORTH THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap has increas ...
Monday, 04 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 PRICES SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 1.38 per MT (3.12%) month over month and US$ 0.93 week on week. ...
Monday, 04 May 15
Q1' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGH THAN 2015 DERIVATIVES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.15 (-0.29%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.07 ...
Sunday, 03 May 15
DRY BULK INDICES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to weak for the week starting from 27 April. The BDI was fell around 2.17% closed at 580 points.
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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