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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Monday, 20 April 15
Q4' 2015 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 50.28 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.03 (-7.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.05 (-0 ...
Sunday, 19 April 15
THE OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET SHOWED STEADY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady this week. The BDI was up 2.93% to 597 points week over week. The cape index was also increased ...
Friday, 17 April 15
IHS ENERGY EUROPEAN COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Attend the IHS Energy European Coal Outlook Conference 19-20 May in Nice, France and learn about timely concerns in today’s coal industry.
...
Friday, 17 April 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.0 million short ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overa ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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