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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 14 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $44
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.25 (4.77%) ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.28 PMT; DECLINED 7.50% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.67 per MT (-7.50%) month over month and US$ 0.39 week on wee ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q4 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 50.97
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (-8.05%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0 ...
Sunday, 12 April 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady, however the BDI was declined slightly week over week.
BDI dropped 1.36 pct and closed at 580 poin ...
Friday, 10 April 15
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 4.7% W-O-W : EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- The University of Queensland
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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