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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 20 April 15
Q4' 2015 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 50.28 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.03 (-7.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.05 (-0 ...
Sunday, 19 April 15
THE OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET SHOWED STEADY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady this week. The BDI was up 2.93% to 597 points week over week. The cape index was also increased ...
Friday, 17 April 15
IHS ENERGY EUROPEAN COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Attend the IHS Energy European Coal Outlook Conference 19-20 May in Nice, France and learn about timely concerns in today’s coal industry.
...
Friday, 17 April 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.0 million short ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the forma ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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