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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 10 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET'S DOWNFALL ALSO OFFER INVESTMENT BARGAINS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk market rates have fallen to historical lows over the past few weeks, with no clear path of recovery, at least in the near term. As such, m ...
Thursday, 09 April 15
CAPESIZE: RATES ARE STILL DISAPPOINTING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy market had a stronger sentiment before the Easter holidays, but have as the bigger panamaxes seen a softening tendency this week. ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET SEEMS UNABLE TO CATCH A BREAK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seems unable to catch a break these days.
According to Intermodal, following the market stabilization that p ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
CHINA BURNS HALF OF THE WORLD'S COAL - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
Intermodal Weekly Market Update
China is the world's largest consumer of coal, using more coal each year than the United States, the Europ ...
Tuesday, 07 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP KEEPS DROPPING; DROPPED 2% W-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.44 (5.14%) ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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