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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 18 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SCORE MONTHLY GAINS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.87 per MT (1.99%) month over month and lost US$ 0.03 week on w ...
Monday, 18 May 15
Q1' 16 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3' 15 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.05 (2.10%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.53 (1.05%) pe ...
Sunday, 17 May 15
INDONESIA - INDIA FREIGHTS RATES EXPECTED TO FLAT TO SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 10.45% and closed at 634 points week on week, while the Cape index saws big jump or up almost 55% for the same peri ...
Friday, 15 May 15
DRY BULK AND CONTAINER SHIPPING TO REMAIN WEAK, OUTLOOK FOR PORTS AND TANKERS POSITIVE - DREWRY MARITIME EQUITY RESEARCH
Global economy is in a gradual recovery mode, sending mixed signals to investors. Chinese economic data continues to remain weak as economy transit ...
Friday, 15 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN U.S DOWN 1.4 MILLION TONS FOR THE WEEK ENDING MAY 8
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.0 million short ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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