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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 22 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3'15 SWAP FINISHED THE WEEK UP 38 CENTS TO $43.65 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ ...
Friday, 22 May 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT AT 16 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.0 million short ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE ACHIEVED ITS BEST EVER TOTAL COAL EXPORT TURNOVER OF 159 MILLION TONS IN 2014
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $900 million ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
ATLANTIC PANAMAX MARKET STARTED TO IMPROVE SLOWLY - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week on the green last week, purely on the back of improved Capesize performance, while the rest o ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
LOWER PRICES SEEN IN NEWBUILDING MARKET ON LOW DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Cash-rich ship owners, or at least, owners with substantial access to financing will be among the prime candidates, who will reap the benefits of t ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
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