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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 11 May 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; INCREASED M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.62 per MT (1.41%) month over month and lost US$ 0.88 week on w ...
Monday, 11 May 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: DECLINED MOM AND WOW
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.46 (-0.90%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.28 (0. ...
Monday, 11 May 15
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 140K MT OF 4600 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender to buy total 140,000 Metric Tons (MT) of Sub-bitumi ...
Sunday, 10 May 15
FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to soft week over week except for the Cape Index which was up 7.32%. Cape index was closed at 616 p ...
Friday, 08 May 15
BUSIEST CAPESIZE DEMOLITION MARKET EVER - BIMCO
The activity on the demolition market is off to a good start in 2015 when looking at dry bulk tonnage.
The dry bulk market has long suffered f ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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