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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 24 March 15
A WEAK WEEK FOR FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 2.48 (5.12%) month ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q2 CLOSED $ 1.87 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has dropped U ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
ARGUS MEDITERRANEAN SOLID FUELS 2015 CONFERENCE | 2-3 JUNE, ISTANBUL
Press Release: Argus Media is proud to announce Argus Mediterranean Solid Fuels, which will be held in Istanbul,on 2-3February.
Argus produces ...
Monday, 23 March 15
Q4' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINED 6.79% M-O-M; 2.55% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.42 per MT (-6.33%) month over month and US$ 1.37 (-2.77%) we ...
Monday, 23 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: Q3 DELIVERY HAS FALLEN 7.93% MONTH-ON-MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.09 (-7.06%) per MT month over month and US$ 2.00 (-3 ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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