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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 24 March 15
A WEAK WEEK FOR FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 2.48 (5.12%) month ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q2 CLOSED $ 1.87 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has dropped U ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
ARGUS MEDITERRANEAN SOLID FUELS 2015 CONFERENCE | 2-3 JUNE, ISTANBUL
Press Release: Argus Media is proud to announce Argus Mediterranean Solid Fuels, which will be held in Istanbul,on 2-3February.
Argus produces ...
Monday, 23 March 15
Q4' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINED 6.79% M-O-M; 2.55% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.42 per MT (-6.33%) month over month and US$ 1.37 (-2.77%) we ...
Monday, 23 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: Q3 DELIVERY HAS FALLEN 7.93% MONTH-ON-MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.09 (-7.06%) per MT month over month and US$ 2.00 (-3 ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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