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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 26 March 15
KYUSHU ELECTRIC POWER OF JAPAN HAS JOINED GLOBALCOAL ONLINE COAL TRADING PLATFORM
globalCOAL® announced today that Kyushu Electric Power, one of Japan’s largest utility companies, has joined its online coal trading plat ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT: TANKER CHARTERING - KATERINA RESTIS
The 1st of January 2015, as broadly reported, denoted the beginning date of new and progressive emission regulations for vessels operating within t ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
AUSTRALIA SET TO ONCE AGAIN BE THE WORLD'S LARGEST COAL EXPORTER - COAL, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Greg Evans, Executive Director - Coal, Minerals Council of Australia
Media Release: The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly published by the ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
AUSTRALIA UPSTREAM ENERGY FIRMS FACE RISING OIL PRICE EXPOSURE - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says the Australian oil and gas companies involved in exploration and production face higher exposure to oil price-linked revenues, w ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
2014 : UK COAL IMPORTS DECLINED 17%; GERMANY COAL IMPORTS UP 6%
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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