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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 26 March 15
KYUSHU ELECTRIC POWER OF JAPAN HAS JOINED GLOBALCOAL ONLINE COAL TRADING PLATFORM
globalCOAL® announced today that Kyushu Electric Power, one of Japan’s largest utility companies, has joined its online coal trading plat ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT: TANKER CHARTERING - KATERINA RESTIS
The 1st of January 2015, as broadly reported, denoted the beginning date of new and progressive emission regulations for vessels operating within t ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
AUSTRALIA SET TO ONCE AGAIN BE THE WORLD'S LARGEST COAL EXPORTER - COAL, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Greg Evans, Executive Director - Coal, Minerals Council of Australia
Media Release: The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly published by the ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
AUSTRALIA UPSTREAM ENERGY FIRMS FACE RISING OIL PRICE EXPOSURE - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says the Australian oil and gas companies involved in exploration and production face higher exposure to oil price-linked revenues, w ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
2014 : UK COAL IMPORTS DECLINED 17%; GERMANY COAL IMPORTS UP 6%
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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