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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 19 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK SOAR 7.69% IN MARCH....!!!
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised up Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 67.76 per MT in March ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
AVERAGE RATE FOR CAPES MOVED TO BELOW $ 4K/DAY LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The even heavier losses noted in the Capesize segment last week, denied the Dry Bulk market a third weekly positive, while the smalle ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
PARKING THE CAPES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It is no secret that recent times have been anything but kind towards shipping, and no sector has suffered more lately than the dry bulk one. While ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
CHINA-OWNED SHIPS: A RAPID RISE TO BECOME ONE OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST FLEETS - RICHARD SCOTT
Ships operated by owners based in China have become increasingly prominent on the world’s sea routes. China-owned container ships, bulk carri ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
Q2 INDONESIAN COAL SWAP DROP 1.45% M-O-M; GAIN 0.63% W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and gained week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 0.70 (1.45%) ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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