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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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