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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
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