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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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