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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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