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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Thursday, 01 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CLOSED AT $63.47 PMT ON 26 DEC, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.37 (-4. ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
COASTAL ENERGEN (C&O) COMMENCES 1ST UNIT OF 1200 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Coastal Energen, part of the Coal & Oil Group, announced last week the commissioning and commencement of power production at the ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL Q2' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED 1.03% LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 15 DELIVERY PRICE - SGX
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.35 (-2 ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
SHIP PRICES KEEP ON FALLING, SALES COME EARLY FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship prices keep on falling on the back of low freight rates. According to the latest report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, January sales seem ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
INDIA INC TO BENEFIT AS IMPORTED COAL PRICES SET TO FALL - RAHUL PRITHIANI
The Hindu: India‘s coal import volumes are set to rise by over 30 per cent over the next two years to 214 million tonnes in 2015-16, as domes ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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