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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Wednesday, 07 January 15
FUEL EFFICIENT SHIPS MAKE LESS SENSE IN LOWER BUNKER PRICE MARKET, BUT FUEL COSTS ARE BOUND TO RISE AGAIN
The shipping industry entered 2015 on mixed emotions, as a relatively buoyant tanker market is met by a rather lackluster dry bulk market. Still, a ...
Wednesday, 07 January 15
2015 IS RIDDLED WITH CHALLENGES FOR THE SHIPPING SECTOR, MOST NOTABLY THE DRY BULK MARKET - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the new year has now set foot for real, many are still looking to detect what’s in store for the various shipping markets, with the first ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
SHIPPING MUST ADOPT CAN-DO ATTITUDE IN 2015 - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping needs to adopt a can-do attitude in order to successfully meet the challenges which are likely to come its way in 2015.
Shipping part ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 1.81% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.74 (-1.51%) m ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST W-O-W AND M-O-M, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.52 (-5. ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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