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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Monday, 05 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 2.50 (-4.02%) month over month and gained US$ 0.20 ( ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
Saturday, 03 January 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 11.2% TO 17.6 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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