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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Monday, 05 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 2.50 (-4.02%) month over month and gained US$ 0.20 ( ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
Saturday, 03 January 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 11.2% TO 17.6 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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