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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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