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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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