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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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