We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
|
|
|
Showing 46 to 50 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
