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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 19 December 14
HOW WILL LOWER BUNKER PRICES AFFECT THE SUBSTANTIAL OVERCAPACITY IN DRY BULK MARKET? - BIMCO
As bunker fuel costs have come down from USD 600 per tonnes to USD 330 per tonnes in the past 6 months, much talk about increased ship speed have s ...
Friday, 19 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION REACHED APPROXIMATELY 19.8 MMST; UP 1.0% WOW
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 19 December 14
HANDY: SOFTER TONE; PANAMAX: QUIET WEEK; CAPESIZE; PAINFUL WEEK
Handy
A softer tone for rates and volumes for the Supras, perhaps less apparent in the Pacific the last week before the season holidays and good ...
Thursday, 18 December 14
INDONESIA TO REVISE UP COAL OUTPUT TARGET TO 460 MILLION TONS IN 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian government has revised up its next year coal output forecast to 460 million tons from its previous forecast of 421 million ...
Wednesday, 17 December 14
CAPES RATES SLIPPED BELOW $5,600/DAY, FELL 84% YOY
COALspot.com: In the very rare occurrence when the BCI stands below the BDI, words to describe market sentiment are probably poor, said Intermodal ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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