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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 17 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL SHANGHAI, SNP TEAM
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, we are all witness to the second hand market prices softening day by day. Any new deal surfacing t ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
THIS PRICE IS A STEAL - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: Despite concerns that the slowdown of the Chinese economy would affect imports of iron ore, it seems that this has not been the case ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.60 PMT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.18 (-0.27%) month on month ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CONTINUES ITS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.7 ...
Monday, 15 December 14
WILL TANKERS BENEFIT FROM REEMERGENCE OF FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The tanker market has been seeing high freight rates for some time now, riding on the back of low oil prices, which are boosting demand from develo ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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